Short answer: Choose a fixed rate if payment certainty matters most and your budget has little room for increases. Choose a variable rate if you can handle payments that may rise or fall, value lower penalties, and accept uncertainty in exchange for flexibility. Neither is right for everyone, and the best choice is the one that fits your finances and your plans for the next five years.
Your rate and payment stay the same for the whole term, commonly five years. You are protected if rates rise, and budgeting is simple. The trade-off is the penalty if you break the mortgage early: fixed-rate penalties use an interest rate differential calculation and can be very expensive, particularly with large banks.
Your rate moves with your lender's prime rate, which follows the Bank of Canada policy interest rate. When the Bank of Canada cuts, your rate falls; when it raises, your rate rises. Some variable mortgages keep your payment fixed and change how much goes to principal, while adjustable-rate mortgages change the payment itself. Penalties for breaking a variable mortgage are typically just three months of interest, far cheaper than fixed penalties.
Over long periods, variable rates have often cost less than fixed rates, which is why many Canadians choose them. But history includes long stretches of falling rates, and the Bank of Canada raised rates rapidly in 2022 and 2023, which shocked many variable holders. Past patterns inform the decision; they do not decide it. Your own cash flow and sleep-at-night factor matter more than any forecast.
You are not forced into an all-or-nothing bet. Shorter fixed terms, such as two or three years, reduce the time you are locked in. Some borrowers also make extra prepayments on a variable mortgage as if they were paying a higher fixed rate, building a buffer while keeping the lower penalty. We can model these options with your numbers.
Either way, the Government of Canada's stress test requires you to qualify at your contract rate plus 2 percent or the benchmark rate, whichever is higher. This protects you: your approval already assumes payments higher than today's. Remember that qualifying and being comfortable are different things, so we stress-test your budget honestly too.
Some variable mortgages hold your payment steady while the rate moves, changing only how much of each payment covers interest. If rates climb far enough, you can reach a trigger rate where your payment no longer covers even the interest, and the lender will raise your payment, ask for a lump sum, or convert you to fixed. This surprised many borrowers in 2022 and 2023. If your variable mortgage has fixed payments, ask exactly where your trigger point sits and how much room you have before reaching it.
Fixed buys certainty, variable buys flexibility, and penalties often matter more than the headline rate. If you want to compare fixed and variable options for your exact mortgage, book a free call with me, Vishvesh Patel. I will show you the payments and penalties side by side, and there is no cost to you for my service.
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